Which Way??
Earlier this year, in February, the White House announced that the U.S. was planning to withdraw its remaining 1,000 troops from Syria, ending a roughly decade-long American military presence there. This announcement followed a historic visit to the White House in November by the former terrorist, now President of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
About the same time, U.S. officials announced plans to complete its military withdrawal from Iraq by September 2026. This timeline will likely coincide with a full withdrawal of NATO military advisers from the country, and it comes less than a week after Iraqi authorities officially took control of the last American base in federal Iraq.
At that time, it appeared that President Trump was moving to fulfill his promise to stop America’s involvement in "endless wars” in the Mideast.
Recently, there was more good news, when in late July, it was announced that Hamas and President Trump’s international "Board of Peace" had agreed on the next steps in a peace deal that includes Hamas' disarmament in the Gaza Strip. If the agreement sticks, the President would be correct in his proclamation that this is a "monumental step toward lasting peace and security."
So how does this military withdrawal and the Gaza peace deal square with the renewed heavy bombing of Iran, which has been paused and restarted more than once? The President says we are close to a deal with Iran, but the bombing seems to be spreading, not ending. Iran’s proxy, the Houthis, are attacking shipping in the Red Sea, and Saudi Arabia appears to be renewing its war against Iran’s proxy, the Houthis. Iran has bombarded the oil complexes of its Sunni neighbors, and even the Ukrainians have gotten involved by attacking Iranian oil shipments to Russia. Ironically, one of the only countries not recently bombed by Iran is Israel. Speaking of Israel, the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon has not ended.
Although President Trump has, so far, kept his promise of “no troops on the ground,” it appears to us that he is actually increasing US military presence in the Mideast by assuming responsibility for keeping the international waterways open in that area. I think that is a mistake, and that it should not be our responsibility. Instead, we should let the nations most affected by any closure of the strait of Hormuz take responsibility for opening it up! The United States can purchase, control and produce all the oil it needs in North and South America, and it does not need to police the waterways for the benefit of other nations.
Whether or not anyone agrees with our opinion expressed above, the reality is that a continued stalemate in negotiations between Iran in the United States will probably mean that oil prices will stay elevated past this November’s election in the United States. Ironically, any success the Iranians are now enjoying in the Strait of Hormuz will hurt them in the not-too-distant future. The current high price is already leading to a decrease in overall demand for oil, and oil-consuming nations all over the world are looking for and finding alternative sources of supply. In addition, the oil producing nations in the Mideast are building pipelines and finding other ways to transport their oil without using the strait of Hormuz. In the future, no nation will ever again want to be dependent upon Iranian good will.
So which way will the President decide to move?
We continue to believe that the only good reason for continued military engagement is to prevent Iran from building a nuclear bomb. Our reasoning is that the Iranian leadership (or what’s left of it) are extreme religious fanatics. They are of the same mindset as the Sunni extremists that flew their planes into the Trade center, in that they believe that it is an honor to die for Allah. We don’t believe that the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction, which has worked so well to prevent a nuclear confrontation with Russians and Chinese, will work with these religious fanatics. We think it is highly probable that, if Iran produces a nuclear bomb, the current religious leadership will use it to fulfill its promise to erase Israel from the face of the earth.
We’ll end by pointing out that the sudden transformation of a designated terrorist to President of Syria, who is now friendly to the United States, shows how quickly alliances can shift in the Mideast. However, there is only one nation over there that shares our values of democracy, women’s rights, and free speech, and that is Israel. We should continue to support Israel no matter how the war is settled with Iran. In addition, ever mindful of the shifting alliances in the Mideast, we should also work to promote peace and prosperity with any nation that will be friendly to us, much like we are trying to do in Gaza and Syria.
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