CAPTURED!
- Bob O'Brien
- 1 hour ago
- 4 min read
Democratic leaders were uniformly apoplectic at the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife. “Reckless, illegal, unconstitutional and violating international law” were charges made by nearly all Democrats and some Republicans. In our opinion, Trump’s military action was hardly reckless, for it was a limited operation that was meticulously planned. As for illegal and unconstitutional, we addressed that in our last blog article – That Ship Has Sailed. In it, we showed how past Presidents of both parties have “broadly interpreted their core powers as Commander-in Chief to act unilaterally without the consent of Congress. We also noted that Federal courts have called this a political issue, but that Congress has the power to limit the military actions of any President.
Indeed, the Democrats in Congress have tried to do just that, and after Maduro’s capture, they introduced legislation in the House and the Senate under the War Powers Act of 1973, which would force the Trump administration to seek authorization from Congress before continuing attacks against cartels that it deems to be terrorist organizations in the Western Hemisphere or launching an attack on Venezuela itself. These Congressional efforts narrowly failed, so I think the issue now is whether these (so far) limited actions are wise and beneficial for the United States.
Let’s start with the fact that the United States is enforcing the sanctions against Venezuelan oil production and that up to 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil will now be sent to the United States and will be sold at current market prices. While many of Trump’s opponents fear that the U.S. will follow up by sending in ground forces to enact regime change, an extended military campaign does not appear to be the plan. Instead, it looks like Trump will leverage the seizure of oil, and the threat of further military action to force Maduro’s allies to align their policies with U.S. national interests. These threats seem to be working, for last week the United States and Venezuela announced Friday they are pursuing the possibility of reestablishing diplomatic relations.
What are those national interests Trump is talking about? In our opinion, there are many:
One, increased oil production: Trump wants to control Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, and that should keep the price of oil low, leading to a lower rate of inflation, which will greatly help the poor and the American middle class. Critics note that the price of oil is already so low that U.S. and foreign companies will not be willing to spend the billions of dollars needed to rehabilitate Venezuela’s decrepit oil infrastructure. They are correct in that regard, but they are missing the bigger picture. Madura has long threatened the small country of Guyana, a former British colony, which is the size of Idaho. It is rich in minerals, has extensive offshore oil deposits, and is perched on eastern Caribbean Sea lanes. These oil deposits contain an estimated 11 billion barrels of oil, making it one of the 21st century’s largest petroleum finds, and it produces 900,000 barrels daily as of November 2025. The capture of Maduro effectively ends Venezuela’s attempt to conquer Guyana and to control its oil production.
Two, Trump will pressure Venezuela to end its cozy relationship with Iran and its proxy Hezbollah. Starting with Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, Iran had established oil and diplomatic agreements with Venezuela, and it leveraged its diplomatic partnership to bolster its posture in South America, including in Bolivia and Nicaragua. It is also notable that Venezuela holds the largest gold reserves in Latin America, placing it in the fifth place for gold reserves worldwide. For years, this gold has been smuggled to Iran for years as a mode of payment for Iranian assistance. Against this backdrop, Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its affiliates have used Venezuela as a strategic hub in the Western Hemisphere. The country has served as a sanctuary for Hezbollah to evade sanctions, a center for operations and money laundering, and a base for its transnational criminal and drug trafficking network. By pressuring Iran here, Trump can use this as leverage to stop the murder and oppression of the Iranian people by its radical theological regime.
Three, Trump will use his leverage to pressure Venezuela to end its support of the Communist government in Cuba. According to CNN, “Maduro’s capture is a seismic reversal of fortune for Cuba’s communist-run government, which for decades has relied on massive aid packages from Venezuela…Now, Maduro’s capture puts at risk a decadeslong alliance that saved Cuba from total economic ruin following the collapse of its former economic patron, the Soviet Union.” When asked by reporters whether the United States might now militarily intervene in Cuba, Trump replied it was not necessary, predicting that Cuba is “ready to fall,” arguing that the island nation can no longer survive without political, security and financial backing from Venezuela.
Four, President Trump will control the oil production and international policies of Venezuela to dramatically curtail the influence of China in Latin and South America. According to a new report from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, “Beijing’s footprint in Venezuela is deep, financially, strategically, and even militarily.” For instance, the report says China purchases most of Venezuela’s oil. In addition, Chinese policy banks have loaned more to Venezuela than to any other country in Latin America, and analysts estimate that at least $12 billion in Chinese loans remain outstanding. These loans were secured by Venezuela’s oil, so these loans are now at risk.
There are also national security concerns. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission reports Venezuela is the largest purchaser of Chinese military equipment in Latin America. The Commission says China has constructed and retains access to two satellite ground stations inside Venezuela. According to USCC, these facilities handle telemetry, tracking, and command functions for a Venezuelan civilian satellite. However, although the program is described as civilian, the report warns that China’s access could still be strategically valuable, because in a major conflict scenario, access points like this could make Chinese space operations more resilient.
Finally, I think there is now some hope that the millions of Venezuelans and Cubans who fled from their homes from despotic, cruel and dictatorial regimes, may be able to return home, and build up their impoverished countries in a flourishing democracy. This may not happen soon, if ever, but at least it is now a possibility!
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