Taiwan
- Bob O'Brien
- 47 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Let’s start with last week’s under-reported news that on May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba and met with its military and intelligence officials. It is only the second time that the head of the CIA has been to the country since its 1959 Communist revolution. The background for the visit is the fact that Cuba’s Communist economic system has always been in shambles, but the situation has now been made terribly worse by the US blockade of oil that had been coming from Venezuela. Cuba has run out of fuel oil and diesel, and it has no reserves. The country is in a desperate situation.
The United States has offered $100 million in much needed aid, but in return Ratcliffe demanded fundamental change to Cuba’s Communist system. For a start, the U.S. is demanding the release of political prisoners, and it wants internet access to all its citizens via Starlink. In addition, all assistance must be distributed by the Catholic Church, not by the government. Finally, and most importantly, Cuba must eliminate the presence of foreign groups (Russia and China) on the island.
**There’s a pattern here. Trump is aggressively acting to limit the foreign presence of the political adversaries of the United States in both North and South America.
In Venezuela, the United States is controlling the sale and flow of oil, and Chevron is now the only Western oil company currently authorized by the U.S. Treasury to operate in Venezuela. Prior to this, China was Venezuela’s largest oil customer, with half of its exports going to China. Now, the flow of discounted Venezuelan oil to China’s refineries has largely stopped. In addition, Chinese financial institutions have loaned Venezuela around US $60 billion. Repayment of these loans were supposed to be in the form of oil shipments to China. These loans are now in jeopardy.
In Panama, after intense pressure from President Trump, the Panama Supreme Court has ruled that the Chinese companies’ concessions for terminals near the Panama Canal, which they had held for more than two decades, were unconstitutional. Following that ruling, Panama annulled key port contracts held by Chinese companies and transferred interim operation of the ports to large Danish and Switzerland based shipping companies.
In Greenland, The BBC reported early last week that the Trump administration is holding regular negotiations with Denmark to expand its military presence. Currently, the U.S. operates just one installation, down from 17 military bases it operated during the Cold War. The negotiations are far different from Trump’s initial demands, and it reportedly cover the recognition of three new military bases, which would be formally designated as U.S. sovereign territory. This is important for U.S. defense concerns, because the shortest distance for a potential Russian missile attack would be right over Greenland.
What about Taiwan? Late last week, President Trump visited the President of China bringing along his very top officials and influential tech titans. The visitors included Stephen Miller, Jamieson Greer, Pete Hegseth, Scott Bessent, Marco Rubio, Tim Cook, Elon Musk and Jesen Huang. While the two countries agreed on lessening trade tensions, the Wall Street Journal headline underscored a very important issue: XI Gives Trump Warning on Taiwan. In their meeting Xi openly stated to Trump that “the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations. If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability.
This should not be a surprise. No major country wants a powerful and potential adversary anywhere near its border. Taiwan is as close to China as Cuba is to the United States. Thus, China wants controlling power over Taiwan, just like Trump wants controlling power over Cuba, and just like Putin wants controlling power over Ukraine.
In response to XI, President Trump refused to directly answer when asked if the United States would defend Taiwan if it were attacked by China. However, in the past, Trump has noted the difficulty of defending Taiwan, saying that Taiwan was 9,000 miles from our border, while it was only 100 miles away from the China mainland. That’s quite different from how former President Biden responded. When asked the same question he said: "Yes, if, in fact, there was an unprecedented attack…That's the commitment we made."
Back in September 2022, in our article entitled Make Peace Not War, we argued that the United States should not risk fighting China a mere 68 miles from its shore. That goes double now. XI’s threat is real. Unlike our relationship with the Philippines and Japan, the United States does not have a defense treaty – no tangible commitment - with Taiwan. I believe that our country is too overextended militarily and financially to make a new commitment to defend Taiwan from a formidable military foe.
Many of my friends disagree. They note that Taiwan is in a critical position for global trade and technology supply chains. Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's semiconductors and about 90% of the most advanced chips. The Taiwan Strait, the 180 kilometer (112 mile)-wide channel separating the island from mainland China, is a critical artery for the global digital economy. The waterway is one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, facilitating about one-fifth of global maritime trade.
We recognize the economic benefit of a democratic Taiwan that is friendly to the United States. However, we believe the cost of a war with China would be incredibly worse. Just look at what is happening in Iran. From a military and economic viewpoint, Iran is a lightweight compared to China, yet the cost of the Iran war is significant. It’s nothing compared to cost of war with China. While we think it is advisable to give Taiwan the means to defend itself, we should not get involved if it comes to a fight.
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